Notes and assumptions:
- No possibility of tie games.
- Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now. (Example: IND and OAK can only be tied if OAK beats IND.)
- Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
- Divisional ties are broken first.
- If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
- Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
- The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record. (Though the AFC South winner can be as bad as 8-8.)
- Locked berths: none.
- Clinched divisions: none.
- Clinched berths: NE, PIT.
- Eliminated: CIN, BUF, DEN, CLE, HOU, MIA.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 15 (and CAR-PIT):Tied Teams | Record | Extra condition | Winner | Why? | Divisional: | | |
| | NE-NYJ | 12-4 | | NYJ | division record | PIT-BAL | any | | PIT | division record | JAX-IND | any | JAX beats HOU and IND beats TEN | IND | common opponents | JAX-IND | 9-7 | JAX beats HOU and IND loses to TEN | JAX | division record | JAX-IND | 9-7 | JAX loses to HOU and IND beats TEN | IND | division record | JAX-IND | any | JAX loses to HOU and IND loses to TEN | IND | common opponents | JAX-IND-TEN | 8-8 | | TEN | common opponents | KC-SD | 10-6 | KC beats OAK
| SD | common opponents | KC-SD | any | KC loses to OAK and SD beats DEN | SD | division record | KC-SD | 9-7 | SD loses to DEN | SD | common opponents | KC-OAK | 9-7 | | OAK | head-to-head sweep | KC-SD-OAK | 9-7 | | OAK | round robin |
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| NE-PIT | 12-4 | | NE | head-to-head | NE-BAL | 12-4 | | NE | head-to-head | NYJ-PIT | any | | NYJ | head-to-head | NYJ-BAL | any | | BAL | head-to-head | NYJ-JAX | 10-6 |
| JAX | common opponents | NYJ-KC | any | | NYJ | conference record | NYJ-SD | 10-6 |
| NYJ | strength-of-victory (NE+MIA+BUF+MIN+DET+CLE+PIT vs. JAX+ARI+TEN+IND+KC+SF+DEN)]
| PIT-KC | 11-5 | | PIT | conference record | BAL-JAX | 10-6 | | JAX | conference record | BAL-KC | any | | BAL | conference record | BAL-SD | 10-6 | | SD | conference record | JAX-KC | any | | KC | head-to-head | JAX-SD | any | | SD | head-to-head | JAX-OAK | 9-7 | | JAX | head-to-head | IND-KC | any | | IND | head-to-head | IND-SD | any | | SD | head-to-head | IND-OAK | 9-7 | | OAK | head-to-head | NYJ-BAL-JAX | 10-6 | | JAX | BAL eliminated on conference record; common opponents | NYJ-BAL-KC | 10-6 |
| NYJ | conference record | NYJ-BAL-SD | 10-6 | | NYJ | BAL eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory | NYJ-JAX-KC | 10-6 | | JAX | KC eliminated on conference record; common opponents | NYJ-JAX-SD | 10-6 |
| NYJ | strength-of-victory | BAL-JAX-KC | 10-6 | | JAX | conference record | BAL-JAX-SD | 10-6 | | SD | BAL eliminated on conference record; head-to-head | NYJ-BAL-JAX-KC | 10-6 | | JAX | BAL & KC eliminated on conference record; common opponents | NYJ-BAL-JAX-SD | 10-6 |
| NYJ | BAL eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory |
Labels: AFC, football, NFL, tiebreakers |
Comments on "Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2010, After Week 15 (and CAR-PIT)"
The NFL notified the Steelers today after their loss to the Jets that they had clinched a playoff spot. Was the NFL hasty to call that? According to your chart there is still a possibility for them to not make it in as of now, however unlikely.
I haven't checked the strength-of-victory tiebreakers carefully enough, but it might be possible that the Steelers beat the Chargers in SoV in every possible scenario. If so, they've clinched.
Steelers' strength-of-victory clinch described here.
Thanks for checking into this and updating. Love how thorough the site is!