Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2009

Notes and assumptions: No possibility of tie games. Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker. Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals. The AFC #6 seed will have at least an 8-8 record. Locked berths: IND #1, SD #2. Other clinched division: NE, CIN. Alive: NYJ, BAL, PIT, DEN, HOU, JAX, MIA. Eliminated: CLE, KC, OAK, BUF, TEN. The AFC wild card tiebreakers are insanely complicated. At least one wild card contender from each division will have 8 wins. The two-team interdivisional tiebreakers at 8-8 are thus irrelevant. If all the 8-7 teams win in Week 17, NYJ is the #5 seed and BAL is the #6 seed. NYJ wins each of its tiebreakers at 9-7. JAX wins each of its tiebreakers at 8-8. (removed - somehow I deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU tiebreaker). TEN loses each of its tiebreakers except for a two-team with HOU and so is eliminated. Important Week 17 games: NE @ HOU, PIT @ MIA, BAL @ OAK, JAX @ CLE, KC @ DEN, CIN @ NYJ (Sunday night). The complete tiebreaker rules are here. AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16: Tied Teams Record Extra conditions Winner Why? Divisional: MIA-NYJ 8-8 MIA head-to-head sweep BAL-PIT any BAL division record JAX-TEN 8-8 JAX division record JAX-HOU 8-8 JAX head-to-head sweep TEN-HOU 8-8 TEN division record JAX-TEN-HOU 8-8 JAX round robin Conference: NE-CIN any likely NE strength-of-victory NYJ-BAL 9-7 NYJ common opponents NYJ-PIT 9-7 NYJ conference record NYJ-HOU 9-7 NYJ head-to-head NYJ-DEN 9-7 NYJ common opponents BAL-HOU 9-7 BAL conference record BAL-DEN 9-7 BAL head-to-head PIT-HOU 9-7 HOU common opponents PIT-DEN 9-7 PIT head-to-head HOU-DEN 9-7 DEN conference record MIA-BAL-HOU 8-8 MIA HOU eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-BAL-JAX 8-8 JAX conference record MIA-BAL-DEN any DEN strength-of-victory MIA-PIT-DEN 8-8 DEN PIT eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-JAX-DEN any JAX conference record MIA-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN TEN eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-HOU-DEN 8-8 DEN HOU eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory NYJ-BAL-JAX 8-8 JAX conference record NYJ-BAL-TEN 8-8 NYJ TEN eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-BAL-HOU any NYJ HOU eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-BAL-DEN any NYJ common opponents NYJ-BAL-DEN 8-8 likely DEN BAL eliminated on common opponents; strength-of-victory NYJ-PIT-HOU 9-7 NYJ conference record NYJ-PIT-DEN 9-7 NYJ PIT eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-PIT-DEN 8-8 likely DEN PIT eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory NYJ-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record NYJ-TEN-DEN 8-8 likely DEN TEN eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory NYJ-HOU-DEN 9-7 NYJ HOU eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-HOU-DEN 8-8 likely DEN HOU eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory BAL-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8 BAL TEN eliminated on conference record; head-to-head BAL-HOU-DEN any BAL HOU eliminated on conference record; head-to-head PIT-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record PIT-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN conference record PIT-HOU-DEN any DEN conference record MIA-BAL-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN TEN eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-BAL-HOU-DEN 8-8 DEN HOU eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-PIT-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record MIA-PIT-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN PIT & TEN eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory MIA-PIT-HOU-DEN 8-8 DEN PIT & HOU eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-BAL-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record NYJ-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8 likely DEN TEN eliminated on conference record; BAL eliminated on common opponents; strength-of-victory NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN 9-7 NYJ HOU eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN 8-8 likely DEN HOU eliminated on conference record; BAL eliminated on common opponents; strength-of-victory NYJ-PIT-JAX-DEN 8-8 JAX conference record NYJ-PIT-TEN-DEN 8-8 likely DEN PIT & TEN eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN 9-7 NYJ PIT & HOU eliminated on conference record; common opponents NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN 8-8 likely DEN PIT & HOU eliminated on conference record; strength-of-victory Strength of victory: Tied Teams Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 NE-CIN NE CIN wins over: ATL, BAL, BUF, BUF, CAR, (HOU), JAX, MIA, NYJ, TB, TEN BAL, BAL, CHI, CLE, CLE, DET, GB, KC, (NYJ), PIT, PIT current SOV wins: 65 61 guaranteed Week 17 wins: ATL or TB CHI or DET guaranteed Week 17 losses: none none needed Week 17 wins: BUF v. IND (counts 2x) CAR v. NO JAX @ CLE MIA v. PIT TEN @ SEA BAL @ OAK GB @ ARI CLE v. JAX (counts 2x) KC @ DEN PIT @ MIA (counts 2x) MIA-DEN at 8-8 MIA DEN wins over: BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TB CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD current SOV wins: 56 62 guaranteed Week 17 wins: none KC guaranteed Week 17 losses: JAX, PIT none needed Week 17 wins: BUF v. IND CAR v. NO NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x) TB v. ATL CIN @ NYJ CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NYG @ MIN OAK v. BAL SD v. WAS NYJ-DEN at 8-8 NYJ DEN wins over: BUF, CAR, HOU, IND, NE, OAK, TB, TEN CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD current SOV wins: 59 62 guaranteed Week 17 wins: BUF or IND HOU or NE KC CIN guaranteed Week 17 losses: none none needed Week 17 wins: CAR v. NO TB v. ATL TEN @ SEA CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NE @ HOU NYG @ MIN SD v. WAS MIA-BAL-DEN at 8-8 MIA BAL DEN wins over: BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TB CHI, CLE, CLE, DEN, DET, KC, PIT, SD CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD current SOV wins: 56 47 62 guaranteed Week 17 wins: none CHI or DET KC KC guaranteed Week 17 losses: JAX PIT DEN PIT OAK needed Week 17 wins: BUF v. IND CAR v. NO NE @ HOU NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x) TB v. ATL CLE v. JAX (counts 2x) SD v. WAS CIN @ NYJ CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NE @ HOU NYG @ MIN SD v. WAS