Sunday, December 27, 2009

Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2009

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games.
  2. Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. The AFC #6 seed will have at least an 8-8 record.
  8. Locked berths: IND #1, SD #2.
  9. Other clinched division: NE, CIN.
  10. Alive: NYJ, BAL, PIT, DEN, HOU, JAX, MIA.
  11. Eliminated: CLE, KC, OAK, BUF, TEN.
  12. The AFC wild card tiebreakers are insanely complicated.
  13. At least one wild card contender from each division will have 8 wins. The two-team interdivisional tiebreakers at 8-8 are thus irrelevant.
  14. If all the 8-7 teams win in Week 17, NYJ is the #5 seed and BAL is the #6 seed.
  15. NYJ wins each of its tiebreakers at 9-7.
  16. JAX wins each of its tiebreakers at 8-8.
  17. (removed - somehow I deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU tiebreaker).
  18. TEN loses each of its tiebreakers except for a two-team with HOU and so is eliminated.
  19. Important Week 17 games: NE @ HOU, PIT @ MIA, BAL @ OAK, JAX @ CLE, KC @ DEN, CIN @ NYJ (Sunday night).
  20. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditionsWinnerWhy?
Divisional:
MIA-NYJ8-8MIAhead-to-head sweep
BAL-PITanyBALdivision record
JAX-TEN8-8JAXdivision record
JAX-HOU8-8JAXhead-to-head sweep
TEN-HOU8-8TENdivision record
JAX-TEN-HOU8-8JAXround robin





Conference:




NE-CINany likely NEstrength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL9-7NYJcommon opponents
NYJ-PIT9-7NYJconference record
NYJ-HOU9-7NYJhead-to-head
NYJ-DEN9-7NYJcommon opponents
BAL-HOU9-7BALconference record
BAL-DEN9-7BALhead-to-head
PIT-HOU9-7HOUcommon opponents
PIT-DEN9-7PIThead-to-head
HOU-DEN9-7DENconference record
MIA-BAL-HOU8-8MIAHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-BAL-JAX8-8JAXconference record
MIA-BAL-DENanyDENstrength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-DEN8-8DENPIT eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-JAX-DENanyJAXconference record
MIA-TEN-DEN8-8DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-HOU-DEN8-8DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL-JAX8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-BAL-TEN8-8NYJTEN eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-HOUanyNYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-DENanyNYJcommon opponents
NYJ-BAL-DEN8-8likely DENBAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-HOU9-7NYJconference record
NYJ-PIT-DEN9-7NYJPIT eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-PIT-DEN8-8likely DENPIT eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-HOU-DEN9-7NYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
BAL-TEN-DEN8-8BALTEN eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head
BAL-HOU-DENanyBALHOU eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head
PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
PIT-TEN-DEN8-8DENconference record
PIT-HOU-DENanyDENconference record
MIA-BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN8-8DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-BAL-HOU-DEN8-8DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
MIA-PIT-TEN-DEN8-8DENPIT & TEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-HOU-DEN8-8DENPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-BAL-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
BAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN9-7NYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
BAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-PIT-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENPIT & TEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN9-7NYJPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory


Strength of victory:
Tied TeamsTeam 1Team 2
Team 3
NE-CINNE
CIN
wins over:ATL, BAL, BUF, BUF, CAR, (HOU), JAX, MIA, NYJ, TB, TEN
BAL, BAL, CHI, CLE, CLE, DET, GB, KC, (NYJ), PIT, PIT
current SOV wins:65
61
guaranteed Week 17 wins:ATL or TB
CHI or DET
guaranteed Week 17 losses:none
none
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND (counts 2x)
CAR v. NO
JAX @ CLE
MIA v. PIT
TEN @ SEA
BAL @ OAK
GB @ ARI
CLE v. JAX (counts 2x)
KC @ DEN
PIT @ MIA (counts 2x)




MIA-DEN at 8-8
MIA
DEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TBCIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:56
62
guaranteed Week 17 wins:none
KC
guaranteed Week 17 losses:JAX, PIT
none
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND
CAR v. NO
NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x)
TB v. ATL
CIN @ NYJ
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NYG @ MIN
OAK v. BAL
SD v. WAS




NYJ-DEN at 8-8
NYJ
DEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, HOU, IND, NE, OAK, TB, TEN
CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:59
62
guaranteed Week 17 wins:BUF or IND
HOU or NE
KC
CIN
guaranteed Week 17 losses:none
none
needed Week 17 wins:CAR v. NO
TB v. ATL
TEN @ SEA
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NE @ HOU
NYG @ MIN
SD v. WAS




MIA-BAL-DEN at 8-8
MIA
BALDEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TBCHI, CLE, CLE, DEN, DET, KC, PIT, SD
CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:56
4762
guaranteed Week 17 wins:noneCHI or DET
KC
KC
guaranteed Week 17 losses:JAX
PIT
DEN
PIT
OAK
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND
CAR v. NO
NE @ HOU
NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x)
TB v. ATL
CLE v. JAX (counts 2x)
SD v. WAS
CIN @ NYJ
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NE @ HOU
NYG @ MIN
SD v. WAS

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Comments on "Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2009"

 

Anonymous Kirk said ... (2:50 PM, December 28, 2009) : 

You don't have a scenario for Miami, NY, Balt, Pitt, Tenn, Houston and Denver all finishing 8-8. I think Miami can get in that way.

 

Blogger Travis said ... (3:40 PM, December 28, 2009) : 

Thanks for pointing that out. I must have accidentally deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU scenario when I was revising the chart.

The chart and notes have been corrected.

 

Blogger tagskie said ... (12:30 PM, January 03, 2010) : 

hi.. just dropping by here... have a nice day! http://kantahanan.blogspot.com/

 

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