Monday, December 26, 2016

Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2016, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  2. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.  (Example: If NYG and GB both finish 10-6, GB wins the NFC North, but NYG doesn't win the NFC East.)
  3. Division ties are broken first. 
  4. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  5. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  6. Two ties equal one win and one loss.
  7. Clinched division and home-field advantage: DAL.
  8. Clinched division: SEA, ATL.
  9. Clinched wild card and #5 seed: NYG.
  10. Eliminated: SF, CHI, LA, PHI, ARI, NO, CAR, MIN, NO.
  11. Eliminated from division: WAS, TB.
  12. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
NFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordWinnerWhy?
DET-GB9-6-1GBhead-to-head

NFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
WAS-DET

DEThead-to-head
WAS-GB8-6-2 v. 9-7
GBhead-to-head
DET-ATL10-6
DETcommon opponents
DET-TB9-7
DETcommon opponents
DET-SEA10-6 v. 9-5-2
DETconference record
GB-ATL10-6
ATLhead-to-head
GB-TB9-7DAL loses to PHI or
IND loses to JAX or
TEN loses to HOU or
SF loses to SEA		GBstrength of victory
GB-TB9-7DAL beats PHI
IND beats JAX
TEN beats HOU
SF beats SEA		GBstrength of schedule
GB-SEA

GBconference record
WAS-DET-TB

DETWAS eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
WAS-GB-TB8-6-2 v. 9-7
v. 9-7		DAL loses to PHI or
IND loses to JAX or
TEN loses to HOU or
SF loses to SEA		GBWAS eliminated on conference record;
strength of victory
WAS-GB-TB8-6-2 v. 9-7
v. 9-7		DAL beats PHI
IND beats JAX
TEN beats HOU
SF beats SEA		TBWAS eliminated on conference record;
strength of victory
DET-ATL-SEA10-6 v. 10-6
v. 9-5-2
DETSEA eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
GB-ATL-SEA10-6 v. 10-6
v. 9-5-2
ATLSEA eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head

Labels: , , ,

posted by Travis at 11:25 PM

Comments on "Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2016, After Week 16"

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (12:41 PM, December 20, 2016) : 

I love this NFL tiebreaker page every year at this time, and I wanted to add a comment.

Seeing all the Strength of Victory question marks got me to research how often the NFL has needed this tiebreaker.

Under the current tiebreaker rules, in place since the 2002 realignment, there have been 4 instances, two just for seeding, two in which teams were eliminated from playoff contention.

2003 SEA over DAL for 5th seed.
2006 NYG over GBY for 6th seed.
2009 NE over CIN for 3rd seed.
2010 GBY over NYG and TBY for 6th seed. (This was the imfamous season where Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record and both the Giants and Bucs both missed despite 10-6 records)

Both elimination scenarios involved NYG and GBY, one going each way. This may be the year TBY eliminates GBY on this tiebreaker. By my current count, both teams are at 49.5/112 or .442, and GBY currently leads strength of schedule 100 to 99 (out of 196). The NFL has never gone to Strength of Schedule.

Of course I'm a Vikings fan, so there is no good news for my team on this page this year, they are losing any seemingly meaningful tiebreaker, they are only alive to sweep GBY at this point, and that would only be to their advantage in a DET d DAL in Week 16, and then GBY d DET in Week 17 scenario.

Anyway, please keep this page going. I look forward to it every year once the byes are over :).

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (11:33 AM, December 27, 2016) : 

This comment has been removed by the author.

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (1:17 PM, December 27, 2016) : 

So I have GBY clinching SOS after Week 17.

GBY SOS = CHI(2)+DET(2)+GBY(2)+DAL+NYG+PHI+WSH+HOU+IND+JAX+TEN+ATL+SEA

TBY SOS = ATL(2)+CAR(2)+NO(2)+ARZ+LA+SF+SEA+DEN+OAK+KC+SD+DAL+CHI

Scenario Requirements: DET d GBY (GBY finishes 9-7, TBY d CAR (TBY finishes 9-7), NYG d WSH (WSH finishes 8-7-1, behind 9-7)

Common Opponents: (CHI+ATL+DAL+SEA), GRAND TOTAL 35.5 wins

GBY Guaranteed win totals in scenario: DET Finishes with 10 Wins, NYG finishes with 11 Wins, WSH finishes with 8.5 Wins, GRAND TOTAL 39.5 wins
GBY Guaranteed wins between opponents in Week 17: MIN v CHI (total 12), HOU v TEN (total 18), IND v JAX (total 11), GRAND TOTAL 41 wins

GBY Minimum: 129 = (35.5) + (39.5) + (41) + 7 + 6 = (CHI+ATL+DAL+SEA) + (DET(2) + NYG + WSH) + (MIN+CHI + HOU+TEN + IND+JAX) + MIN(B) + PHI

TBY Guaranteed win totals in scenario: CAR finishes with 6 Wins, Tampa defeated them twice, GRAND TOTAL 12 wins
TBY Guaranteed wins between opponents in Week 17: ATL v NO (total 18), ARZ v LA (total 11.5), DEN v OAK (total 21), KC v SD (total 17), GRAND TOTAL 67.5

TBY Minimum: 124 = (35.5) + (12) + (67.5) + 7 + 2 = (CHI+ATL+DAL+SEA) + (CAR(2)) + (ATL+NO + ARZ+LA + DEN+OAK + KC+SD) + NO + SF
TBY Maximum: 126 = 124 + 2 (only two live opponents, NO and SF, can improve TBY's SOS)

GBY Clinches Strength of Schedule.

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (4:03 PM, December 27, 2016) : 

This comment has been removed by the author.

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (4:11 PM, December 27, 2016) : 

So I overcounted KC+SD, I had an 18 in their calculation where there should've been a 17 :(.

This is now the only way I see Tampa making it.

SoV Scenario Requirements: DET d GBY (GBY finishes 9-7, TBY d CAR (TBY finishes 9-7), NYG t WSH (WSH finishes 8-7-2, equal to 9-7 and is eliminated from tiebreaker on conference record)
GBY Victories: CHI(2), DET, HOU, JAX, MIN, NYG, PHI, SEA
TBY Victories: ATL, CAR(2), CHI, KC, NO, SEA, SD, SF

Common Victories: SEA+CHI (MIN GRAND TOTAL: 12.5 Wins, MAX GRAND TOTAL: 14.5 Wins)
GBY Guaranteed defeated opponent win total by scenario: DET 10 Wins, NYG 10.5 wins, GRAND TOTAL 20.5 Wins)
GBY wins from defeated opponents head-to-head in Week 17: MIN v CHI total 11 (Counts once, one GBY victory over CHI counts in common victories), GRAND TOTAL 11 Wins

GBY Minimum 62.0 = (CHI+SEA)+(DET+NYG)+(CHI+MIN)+HOU+JAX+PHI = (12.5) + (20.5) + (11) + 9 + 3 + 6

TBY Guaranteed defeated opponent win total by scenario: CAR finishes with 6 Wins (Counts twice), GRAND TOTAL: 12 Wins
TBY wins from defeated opponents head-to-head in Week 17: ATL v NO total 18, KC v SD total 17, GRAND TOTAL: 35 Wins

Minimums after Week 16 and Week 17 Scenario Requirements (Required or matching terms in parenthesis)
TBY Minimum 61.5 = (CHI+SEA)+(CAR(2))+(ATL+NO + KC+SD)+SF = (12.5) + (12) + (35) + 2

So aside from the 3 results required in the scenario, because TBY has only one "live" game involving an opponent they defeated, TBY needs all 4 of the following results just to win the SOV tiebreaker for 6th place.
SF d SEA, TEN d HOU, IND d JAX, and DAL d PHI

If TBY get 3.5 of these results, it would come to strength of schedule, which GBY has clinched. In short, Tampa Bay has to hit a 7 game parlay, including one tie game, to make the playoffs.

 

post a comment