Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: If NYJ and CIN both finish 11-5, CIN wins the AFC North, but NYJ doesn't win the AFC East.)
  4. Division ties are broken first.  (Example: If DEN, KC, and NYJ all finish 11-5, break the DEN-KC tie first.  Then apply the tiebreaker between NYJ and the DEN-KC loser.)
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals. 
  7. Strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of all the teams a team has played.
  8. Combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed adds the ordinal rankings of the team's ranking in the AFC in both of those categories.  Lowest total wins.  It is not the same thing as net points scored.  (Currently, the Colts have 303 points scored, ranking 12th, and 384 points allowed, ranking 13th, while the Texans have 309 points scored, ranking 11th, and 307 points allowed, ranking tied for 6th [the NFL ignores the tie].  As things stand today, the Texans would win the tiebreaker 17 to 25.) 
  9. Incredibly, all eight AFC Week 17 games are meaningful to determining playoff berths and/or seeding.
  10. Locked berths: none.
  11. Clinched division/bye: NE.
  12. Clinched division: CIN.
  13. Clinched berths: DEN, KC.
  14. Eliminated: BUF, MIA, BAL, CLE, JAX, TEN, OAK, SD.
  15. Eliminated from division: NYJ, PIT.
  16. Eliminated from wild card: HOU, IND.
  17. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
IND-HOU8-8either CIN beats BAL or
NO beats ATL or
NYJ beats BUF or
DEN loses to SD or
MIA loses to NE
HOUstrength of victory
(ATL+DEN+MIA vs.
CIN+NO+NYJ)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT beats CLE
KC beats OAK
likely HOU best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT beats CLE
KC loses to OAK
IND strength of schedule
(PIT+DEN vs.
CIN+KC)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT loses to CLE
KC beats OAK
HOU strength of schedule
(PIT+DEN vs.
CIN+KC)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT loses to CLE
KC loses to OAK
likely HOU best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
DEN-KC11-5KCdivision record

AFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordWinnerWhy?
NE-CIN12-4
NEcommon opponents
NE-DEN12-4DENhead-to-head
NYJ-PIT10-6
PITcommon opponents
NYJ-DEN11-5NYJconference record
NYJ-KCKCconference record
CIN-DEN
DENhead-to-head
CIN-KC11-5CINhead-to-head
PIT-KC10-6KChead-to-head
NE-CIN-DEN12-4
DENhead-to-head
NYJ-PIT-KC10-6KCconference record

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Comments on "Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (2:24 PM, December 17, 2015) : 

NE can't be in the wildcard as they clinched their division when miami lost

 

Blogger Travis said ... (2:39 PM, December 17, 2015) : 

NE is in the conference tiebreakers for purposes of seeding the division winners.

 

Blogger Mike Smith said ... (7:24 PM, December 20, 2015) : 

Can you please put the records the Cin and NE would have when tied. 12-4 or 13-3

 

Blogger Kulko said ... (4:08 AM, December 21, 2015) : 

It happens no matter what the record is, so thats why the field is empty. As long as Den doesn't join the tiebreaker NE wins on Common Opponent.

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (1:34 PM, December 30, 2015) : 

So Indy is basically dead to a 9 game parlay (including their own game and Houston's game) that would create a tie on strength of victory and an advantage in strength of schedule?

 

Blogger Travis said ... (8:09 AM, December 31, 2015) : 

Or a 7-game parlay, plus the same result in both the Steelers and Chiefs games, plus huge blowouts in theirs and the Texans games.

 

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