Notes and assumptions:
- No possibility of further tie games (CIN is excluded from the table).
- Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now. (Example: KC and SD can only finish tied if KC beats SD next week.)
- Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: If BUF and IND both finish 10-6, IND wins the AFC South, but BUF doesn't win the AFC East.)
- Division ties are broken first. (Example: If BAL, SD, and KC all
finish 9-7, break the SD-KC tie first. Then apply the tiebreaker
between BAL and the SD-KC winner.)
- If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
- Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
- Locked berths: none.
- Clinched division and #1 seed: NE.
- Clinched divisions: IND, DEN.
- Clinched berths: PIT, CIN.
- Eliminated: NYJ, TEN, JAX, OAK, CLE, MIA, BUF.
- Eliminated from division: HOU, SD, KC, BAL.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied Teams | Record | | Winner | Why? |
BUF-MIA | 9-7 | | MIA | conference record |
BAL-PIT | 10-6 |
| PIT | conference record |
KC-SD | 9-7 | | KC | head-to-head |
AFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied Teams | Record | | Winner | Why? |
NE-DEN | 12-4 | | NE | head-to-head |
BAL-SD | | | SD | head-to-head |
BAL-KC | 9-7 | | KC | conference record |
PIT-IND | 11-5 | | PIT | head-to-head |
PIT-DEN | 11-5 |
| DEN | strength of victory |
PIT-SD | 10-6 | | PIT | conference record |
IND-DEN | 11-5 | | DEN | head-to-head |
BUF-BAL-HOU | 9-7 | | HOU | head-to-head |
BUF-BAL-SD | 9-7 | | SD | head-to-head |
BUF-BAL-KC | 9-7 |
| KC | conference record |
MIA-BAL-HOU | 9-7 |
| HOU | conference record |
MIA-BAL-SD | 9-7 |
| MIA | conference record |
MIA-BAL-KC | 9-7 |
| KC | BAL eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head |
BAL-HOU-SD | 9-7 |
| HOU | BAL eliminated on head-to-head;
conference record |
BAL-HOU-KC | 9-7 | | HOU | conference record |
PIT-IND-DEN | 11-5 |
| DEN | IND eliminated on head-to-head;
strength-of-victory |
BUF-BAL-HOU-KC | 9-7 | | HOU | conference record |
MIA-BAL-HOU-KC | 9-7 |
| HOU | conference record |
Labels: AFC, football, NFL, tiebreakers |
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