Sunday, December 23, 2012

Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2012, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of further tie games.  (SF is left off the table except for the division tiebreaker.)
  2. Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now.  (Example: DAL and WAS can only be tied if DAL beats WAS.)
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.  (Example: If MIN, CHI, and NYG all finish 9-7, break the MIN-CHI tie first.  Then apply the tiebreaker between MIN and NYG.).
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. Locked berths: none.
  8. Clinched divisions: GB, ATL.
  9. Clinched berths: ATL (#1 seed).
  10. Eliminated: PHI, DET, NO, TB, CAR, STL, ARI.
  11. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
NFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditionsWinnerWhy?
NYG-WAS9-7WASdivision record
WAS-DAL9-7
DALcommon opponents
NYG-WAS-DAL9-7
DALNYG eliminated on division record; 
common opponents
MIN-CHI
MINdivision record
SF-SEA
SFcommon opponents

NFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16 :
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditionsWinnerWhy?
NYG-MIN9-7NYGconference record
WAS-MIN9-7WAShead-to-head
GB-SEA11-5SEAhead-to-head
CHI-SEA10-6SEAhead-to-head
MIN-SEA10-6SEAconference record

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Comments on "Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2012, After Week 16"

 

Anonymous Justin said ... (1:55 PM, December 23, 2012) : 

Thank you so much for doing the work on this. It is very helpful. Though I think you should list MIN-CHI, I believe MIN has clinched all tiebreakers over CHI (Especially if MIN beats GBY in Week 17) which is important to a lot of scenarios.

This is the best reference on the internet though, I found it last year as well. Well done.

 

Blogger Travis said ... (8:05 PM, December 23, 2012) : 

Yeah, accidentally deleted MIN-CHI during one of the edits. Restore.d

 

Anonymous Justin said ... (11:53 PM, December 23, 2012) : 

Sorry to keep picking nits,

But I believe SEA wins all tiebreakers with SF on Conf Record.

Current Div Conf
SF 10-4-1, 2-2-1, 6-4-1
SEA 10-5 , 2-3 , 7-4

IF SF Tie, SEA Win

SF 10-4-2, 2-2-2, 6-4-2 (7-5)
SEA 11-5 , 3-3 , 8-4

IF SF lose SEA Tie

SF 10-5-1, 2-3-1, 6-5-1
SEA 10-5-1, 2-3-1, 7-4-1

 

Anonymous Justin said ... (11:56 PM, December 23, 2012) : 

My apologies, didn't realize common opponents takes precedent in division tiebreakers, my error.

 

Anonymous Justin said ... (12:15 AM, December 24, 2012) : 

Okay, I lied, I still think SEA wins all tiebreaks with SF, SEA currently trails SF by 1/2 a game, and they also trail by 1/2 game in common opponents. If they make up that 1/2 game in week 17 they will also make it up in the common game tiebreak, which means the Conf record tiebreak counts in which SEA would go from 1/2 game lead to a one game lead.

Showing my work.

Current, Div, Comm, Conf

SF 10-4-1, 2-2-1, 8-2-1, 6-4-1
SEA 10-5 , 2-3 , 8-3 , 7-4

IF SF Tie, SEA Win


SF 10-4-2, 2-2-2, 8-2-2, 6-4-2
SEA 11-5 , 3-3 , 9-3, 8-4

IF SF lose, SEA Tie

SF 10-5-1, 2-3-1, 8-3-1, 6-5-1
SEA 10-5-1, 2-3-1, 8-3-1, 7-4-1

SF SEA
GBY 1-0 1-0
DET 1-0 0-1
MIN 0-1 1-0
CHI 1-0 1-0

NYJ 1-0 1-0
BUF 1-0 1-0
MIA 1-0 0-1
NE 1-0 1-0

ARZ 1-0* 1-1
STL 0-1-1 1-0*

*remaining game

TOTAL 8-2-1 8-3

 

Anonymous Justin said ... (12:48 PM, December 24, 2012) : 

Ruh Roh, I'm wrong again,

SEA lost to STL, I have that marked wrong. SF has Common games locked up.

Like you said,

Why this thing you post is awesome :)!

 

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