Sunday, December 27, 2015

Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games (except MIN-GB).
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. Clinched division and bye: CAR, ARI.
  8. Clinched division: WAS (#4 seed).
  9. Clinched berths: GB, MIN, SEA.
  10. Eliminated: NYG, PHI, DAL, CHI, DET, ATL, TB, NO, STL, SF.
  11. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
NFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
GB-MIN10-5-1GBhead-to-head

NFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
GB-SEA10-6GBhead-to-head
MIN-SEA10-6SEAhead-to-head
CAR-ARI14-2ARIconference record
ATL-SEA9-7
SEAcommon opponents

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posted by Travis at 10:43 PM

Comments on "Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16"

 

Blogger Justin Jelinek said ... (11:03 AM, December 21, 2015) : 

So I very roughly figured out the MIN-ATL-SEA strength of victory.

With these assumptions: NYG d MIN, GBY d MIN, ATL d CAR, ATL d NO, STL d SEA, ARZ d SEA, and also assuming that games between two teams that have been defeated by one of these three net to 1-1 (4 games between teams Minnesota has defeated, counting CHI-DET twice because MIN d both twice, 6 between teams Atlanta has defeated, and 4 between teams Seattle has defeated.) These are the opposing winning percentages.

Atlanta 63-76, .453, 5 isolated games
Minnesota 57-78, .422, 9 isolated games (NO-DET counts twice because MIN d DET twice)
Seattle 50-85, .370, 5 isolated games

So Seattle has no way to win this tiebreak outright, but they win a two-team tiebreak against either MIN or ATL hence why they've clinched.

I believe NO defeating DET would clinch this tiebreak for ATL because that would count two losses in MIN's column and one win in ATL's column, making the records 64-76, 4 iso for ATL and 57-80, 7 iso for MIN. I didn't do the math, but I'm assuming if both teams finish with their strength of victory at 64-80 ATL would win strength of schedule for playing CAR twice.

On the other hand, if DET wins tonight the records would be 63-77, 4 iso for ATL and 59-78, 7 iso for MIN which is a deficit MIN could be overcome, especially with DET-SF counting twice for MIN in week 16.



 

Blogger Travis said ... (2:27 PM, December 21, 2015) : 

The Saints defeating the Lions tonight would clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker for the Falcons over the Vikings and Saints.

Minnesota as of right now: 50 SoV wins
Must happen (3 wins): ATL over CAR, ATL over NO, STL over SEA
Guaranteed wins (4 wins): CHI-DET (counts twice), KC-OAK, OAK-SD
Potential future (7 wins): CHI over TB (counts twice), DET over SF (counts twice), KC over CLE, SD over DEN, STL over SF
Maximum total: 64 SoV wins

Atlanta as of right now if they go 9-7: 57 SoV wins
Must happen in scenario (2 wins): NYG over MIN, NO over DET
Guaranteed wins (6 wins): HOU-TEN, HOU-JAX, JAX-NO, DAL-WAS, NYG-PHI, PHI-WAS
Minimum total: 65 SoV wins

 

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