Fantasy football projection comparison, 2005: An Overview
|The following tables compare several fantasy football projections from last year, combined with the actual results. The results/projections:|
1. Actual = the actual rank of the player at his position in 2005, according to a Yahoo league with a default setup:
1 point per 50 passing yards; 1 point per 20 rushing yards; 1 point per 20 receiving yards; 6 points per passing, rushing, receiving, or return TD; -2 points per interception; 2 points per 2-point conversion; -2 points per lost fumble; 1 point per extra point, 3 points per FG 18-39; 4 points per FG 40-49; 5 points per FG 50+. Important: the other projections' rankings are NOT based on a default Yahoo setup. Each has its own scoring system, with its own quirks. For example, the KUBIAK ranks for RB emphasize yards, while the R&F ranks de-emphasize rookies.
Defenses: 1 point per sack; 2 points per interception or fumble recovery; 6 points per TD; 2 points per safety; 2 points per blocked kick; 10 points per shutout; 7 points for 1-6 allowed; 4 points for 7-13 allowed; 1 point for 14-20 allowed; -1 point for 28-34 allowed; -4 points for 35+ allowed.
There are more "Yahoo actual" ranked players available than I listed.
2. ESPN (Consensus of users) = the order in which the player was selected at his position in 2005 ESPN fantasy football drafts.
3. Sportsline (expert) = the order in which Michael Fabiano, Sportsline "expert fantasy football columnist," ranked the player at his position for 2005.
4. Yahoo (Projections*) = the order in which the player was selected at his position in 2005 Yahoo fantasy football drafts. The Yahoo autopick is set to pick the best projected player, so this is a good proxy for Yahoo's projections.
5. NFL Record & Fact Book (Projections) = the projected rank of the player at his position, as given in the 2005 NFL Record & Fact Book. The print-date is no later than July, so it includes some ineligible (Onterrio Smith), injured (Correll Buckhalter), retired (Jerry Rice), and cut (Maurice Clarett) players. Players marked with an "x -" were rookies, all of whom were projected conservatively. Also, the Defense/Special Teams ranks are merely the averages of the 2002-04 seasons.
6. Kubiak (Projections) [Added 7/20] - the projected rank of the player at his position, as given by the KUBIAK projections of Football Outsiders. Note that the projected ranks are not those given in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, but of an updated spreadsheet from sometime in the preseason. (8/1 Update: I have been informed that the spreadsheet may not be accurate. I believe, but am not sure, that it was correct for all positions except kickers. I have updated the kicker rankings accordingly.)
Thanks to Zac for providing the 2005 KUBIAK spreadsheet.
I recently discovered that the tables were appearing side-by-side in Internet Explorer; to counteract this, each position has been given a separate post.
[Edit: 7/27] The Yahoo actual stats for last year originally didn't include certain retired players. I fixed the running backs table, and will fix the other tables if I discover problems.
Also, note that the ranks for the Record & Fact Book and KUBIAK listed here are those as were stated by those projections, not as those projections would have ranked if used in the default Yahoo league. See this post, which compares the two in a simple Yahoo setup.
I will add other projections to the tables if they become available.