Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: If NYJ and CIN both finish 11-5, CIN wins the AFC North, but NYJ doesn't win the AFC East.)
  4. Division ties are broken first.  (Example: If DEN, KC, and NYJ all finish 11-5, break the DEN-KC tie first.  Then apply the tiebreaker between NYJ and the DEN-KC loser.)
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals. 
  7. Strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of all the teams a team has played.
  8. Combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed adds the ordinal rankings of the team's ranking in the AFC in both of those categories.  Lowest total wins.  It is not the same thing as net points scored.  (Currently, the Colts have 303 points scored, ranking 12th, and 384 points allowed, ranking 13th, while the Texans have 309 points scored, ranking 11th, and 307 points allowed, ranking tied for 6th [the NFL ignores the tie].  As things stand today, the Texans would win the tiebreaker 17 to 25.) 
  9. Incredibly, all eight AFC Week 17 games are meaningful to determining playoff berths and/or seeding.
  10. Locked berths: none.
  11. Clinched division/bye: NE.
  12. Clinched division: CIN.
  13. Clinched berths: DEN, KC.
  14. Eliminated: BUF, MIA, BAL, CLE, JAX, TEN, OAK, SD.
  15. Eliminated from division: NYJ, PIT.
  16. Eliminated from wild card: HOU, IND.
  17. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
IND-HOU8-8either CIN beats BAL or
NO beats ATL or
NYJ beats BUF or
DEN loses to SD or
MIA loses to NE
HOUstrength of victory
(ATL+DEN+MIA vs.
CIN+NO+NYJ)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT beats CLE
KC beats OAK
likely HOU best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT beats CLE
KC loses to OAK
IND strength of schedule
(PIT+DEN vs.
CIN+KC)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT loses to CLE
KC beats OAK
HOU strength of schedule
(PIT+DEN vs.
CIN+KC)
IND-HOU8-8CIN loses to BAL
ATL beats NO
NYJ loses to BUF
DEN beats SD
MIA beats NE
PIT loses to CLE
KC loses to OAK
likely HOU best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
DEN-KC11-5KCdivision record

AFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordWinnerWhy?
NE-CIN12-4
NEcommon opponents
NE-DEN12-4DENhead-to-head
NYJ-PIT10-6
PITcommon opponents
NYJ-DEN11-5NYJconference record
NYJ-KCKCconference record
CIN-DEN
DENhead-to-head
CIN-KC11-5CINhead-to-head
PIT-KC10-6KChead-to-head
NE-CIN-DEN12-4
DENhead-to-head
NYJ-PIT-KC10-6KCconference record

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Sunday, December 27, 2015

Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games (except MIN-GB).
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. Clinched division and bye: CAR, ARI.
  8. Clinched division: WAS (#4 seed).
  9. Clinched berths: GB, MIN, SEA.
  10. Eliminated: NYG, PHI, DAL, CHI, DET, ATL, TB, NO, STL, SF.
  11. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
NFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
GB-MIN10-5-1GBhead-to-head

NFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditions (all must occur)WinnerWhy?
GB-SEA10-6GBhead-to-head
MIN-SEA10-6SEAhead-to-head
CAR-ARI14-2ARIconference record
ATL-SEA9-7
SEAcommon opponents

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Reader Mail: Overtime and the Longest Drives in NFL History

What happens if an NFL team receives the kickoff to start overtime, then uses the entire 15-minute overtime period before kicking a field goal as time expires?  Does the game go into a second overtime so that the other team has a chance to score, or is the game over?

It depends when the game takes place.  In the preseason or regular season, the game would end with the team kicking the field goal winning; in the playoffs, the game would go into a second overtime with the other team getting an opportunity to possess the ball.

Rules that apply:

16-1-3-a: Both teams must have the opportunity to possess the ball once during the extra period, unless the team that receives the opening kickoff scores a touchdown on its initial possession, in which case it is the winner, or if the team kicking off to start the overtime period scores a safety on the receiving team's initial possession, in which case the team that kicked off is the winner.

16-1-4-a: The following shall apply to overtime games in the preseason and regular season ... There shall be a maximum of one 15-minute period, even if the second team has not has an opportunity to possess the ball or its initial possession not ended.  If the score is tied at the end of the period, the game shall result in a tie.

16-1-5-a: The following shall apply to overtime games in postseason ... If the score is tied at the end of a 15-minute overtime period, or if the second team's initial possession has not ended, another overtime period will begin, and play will continue, regardless of how many 15-minute periods are necessary.

Notes:

To the best of my knowledge, there has never been a 15-minute drive in NFL history.  (The longest drive in NCAA history lasted 14 minutes and 26 seconds - Navy (of course) vs. New Mexico in the 2004 Emerald Bowl.)

Longest NFL drives by time, 1983-2016:
TeamDateOpponentDrive
Length
Plays-YardsStart TimeStart LOSResultScore 
before drive
Final
Tennessee Oilers11/27/97Dallas13:2721-908:11 3QOwn 9Field Goal24-14W 27-14
N.Y. Giants1/14/01Minnesota12:5319-5312:53 4QOwn 20End of Game41-0W 41-0
New England12/12/82Miami12:4219-792:19 1QOwn 20Missed FG0-0W 3-0
Atlanta12/30/90Dallas12:3919-747:33 3QOwn 20Field Goal16-0W 26-7
Houston Oilers10/22/89Pittsburgh12:3317-7312:57 1QOwn 27Touchdown0-0W 27-0
L.A. Raiders11/18/84Kansas City12:3121-752:38 3QOwn 20Field Goal14-0W 17-7
Miami1/1/12N.Y. Jets12:2921-947:56 3QOwn 6Touchdown6-10W 19-17
Jacksonville9/21/08Indianapolis12:1818-8214:51 4QOwn 14Field Goal17-14W 23-21
San Francisco9/25/88Seattle12:1718-851:24 3QOwn 15Touchdown31-7W 38-7
Kansas City11/13/88Cincinnati12:1522-8714:12 2QOwn 8Field Goal6-7W 31-28
L.A. Raiders12/24/94Kansas City12:1422-864:16 1QOwn 2Field Goal0-7L 19-9
New England12/27/09Jacksonville12:1220-7312:41 4QOwn 20Downs35-7W 35-7
Atlanta10/13/85Seattle12:0719-894:11 1QOwn 3Field Goal0-7L 30-26
Minnesota11/3/85Detroit12:0719-799:18 1QOwn 12Field Goal0-3W 16-13
San Francisco12/30/02St. Louis12:0720-8115:00 1QOwn 18Field Goal0-0L 31-20
Cleveland12/27/15Kansas City12:0120-615:27 3QOwn 20Field Goal10-17L 17-13
Cincinnati12/16/01N.Y. Jets12:0020-8113:56 1QOwn 19Touchdown0-0L 15-14
Tampa Bay11/4/07Arizona11:5919-868:46 3QOwn 6Missed FG17-3W 17-10
Chicago11/20/94Detroit11:5420-7112:46 3QOwn 23Field Goal10-10W 20-10
Seattle10/11/09Jacksonville11:5316-5211:53 4QOwn 26End of Game41-0W 41-0
San Diego12/8/91Kansas City11:5218-8011:15 1QOwn 20Touchdown0-0L 20-17 (OT)
Oakland12/16/07Indianapolis11:4920-9914:55 2QOwn 1Touchdown0-10L 21-14
Jacksonville9/23/07Denver11:4418-809:53 1QOwn 20Touchdown0-0W 23-14
New Orleans11/20/88Denver11:4318-9714:50 4QOwn 3Touchdown35-0W 42-0
Houston Oilers9/12/93Kansas City11:4018-8010:33 1QOwn 20Touchdown0-0W 30-0
Minnesota9/21/08Carolina11:3419-755:41 3QOwn 11Field Goal17-10W 20-10
Atlanta11/3/91San Francisco11:3018-754:53 3QOwn 25Touchdown0-7W 17-14

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