Notes and assumptions:
- No possibility of ties.
- Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
- Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
- The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
- Locked berths: TEN #1, PIT #2, IND #5
- Key games next week: NE at BUF, MIA at NYJ, JAX at BAL, DEN at SD.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Teams tied | Record | Who wins? | Why? |
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| Divisional:
| NYJ-NE | 10-6 | NYJ | Division record | NYJ-MIA | 10-6 | NYJ | Head-to-head sweep | NE-MIA | any | MIA | Conference record (8-4/7-5 vs. 7-5/6-6) | NYJ-NE-MIA | 10-6 | NYJ | Round robin (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3) | PIT-BAL | 11-5 | PIT | Head-to-head sweep | DEN-SD | 8-8 | SD | Division record (5-1 vs. 3-3) |
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| Conference:
| NYJ-BAL | 10-6 | NYJ | Conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5) | NE-PIT | 11-5 | PIT | Head-to-head | NE-BAL | any | BAL | Conference record | NE-IND | 11-5 | IND | Head-to-head | MIA-PIT | 11-5 | PIT | Conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4) | MIA-BAL | 10-6 | BAL | Head-to-head | BAL-IND | 11-5 | IND | Head-to-head | NE-BAL-IND | 11-5 | IND | Head-to-head sweep |
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