|Notes and assumptions:|
- No possibility of ties.
- Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
- Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
- The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
- Locked berths: TEN #1, PIT #2, IND #5
- Key games next week: NE at BUF, MIA at NYJ, JAX at BAL, DEN at SD.
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
|Teams tied||Record||Who wins?||Why?|
|NE-MIA||any||MIA||Conference record (8-4/7-5 vs. 7-5/6-6)|
|NYJ-NE-MIA||10-6||NYJ||Round robin (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3)|
|DEN-SD||8-8||SD||Division record (5-1 vs. 3-3)|
|NYJ-BAL||10-6||NYJ||Conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5)|
|MIA-PIT||11-5||PIT||Conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4)|