Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart

Notes and assumptions:

1. No possibility of ties.
2. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
3. Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
4. The AFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
5. Locked berths: TEN #1, PIT #2, IND #5
   
6. Key games next week: NE at BUF, MIA at NYJ, JAX at BAL, DEN at SD.
   
7. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:

Teams tied	Record	Who wins?	Why?
Divisional:
NYJ-NE	10-6	NYJ	Division record
NYJ-MIA	10-6	NYJ	Head-to-head sweep
NE-MIA	any	MIA	Conference record (8-4/7-5 vs. 7-5/6-6)
NYJ-NE-MIA	10-6	NYJ	Round robin (3-1 vs. 2-2 vs. 1-3)
PIT-BAL	11-5	PIT	Head-to-head sweep
DEN-SD	8-8	SD	Division record (5-1 vs. 3-3)
Conference:
NYJ-BAL	10-6	NYJ	Conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5)
NE-PIT	11-5	PIT	Head-to-head
NE-BAL	any	BAL	Conference record
NE-IND	11-5	IND	Head-to-head
MIA-PIT	11-5	PIT	Conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4)
MIA-BAL	10-6	BAL	Head-to-head
BAL-IND	11-5	IND	Head-to-head
NE-BAL-IND	11-5	IND	Head-to-head sweep