Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2015, After Week 16

Notes and assumptions:

1. No possibility of tie games.
2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now
3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. (Example: If NYJ and CIN both finish 11-5, CIN wins the AFC North, but NYJ doesn't win the AFC East.)
4. Division ties are broken first.  (Example: If DEN, KC, and NYJ all finish 11-5, break the DEN-KC tie first.  Then apply the tiebreaker between NYJ and the DEN-KC loser.)
5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals. 
7. Strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of all the teams a team has played.
8. Combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed adds the ordinal rankings of the team's ranking in the AFC in both of those categories.  Lowest total wins.  It is not the same thing as net points scored.  (Currently, the Colts have 303 points scored, ranking 12th, and 384 points allowed, ranking 13th, while the Texans have 309 points scored, ranking 11th, and 307 points allowed, ranking tied for 6th [the NFL ignores the tie].  As things stand today, the Texans would win the tiebreaker 17 to 25.) 
9. Incredibly, all eight AFC Week 17 games are meaningful to determining playoff berths and/or seeding.
10. Locked berths: none.
11. Clinched division/bye: NE.
12. Clinched division: CIN.
13. Clinched berths: DEN, KC.
14. Eliminated: BUF, MIA, BAL, CLE, JAX, TEN, OAK, SD.
15. Eliminated from division: NYJ, PIT.
16. Eliminated from wild card: HOU, IND.
17. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

AFC Division Tiebreakers after Week 16:

Tied Teams	Record	Extra conditions (all must occur)	Winner	Why?
IND-HOU	8-8	either CIN beats BAL or NO beats ATL or NYJ beats BUF or DEN loses to SD or MIA loses to NE	HOU	strength of victory (ATL+DEN+MIA vs. CIN+NO+NYJ)
IND-HOU	8-8	CIN loses to BAL ATL beats NO NYJ loses to BUF DEN beats SD MIA beats NE PIT beats CLE KC beats OAK	likely HOU	best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
IND-HOU	8-8	CIN loses to BAL ATL beats NO NYJ loses to BUF DEN beats SD MIA beats NE PIT beats CLE KC loses to OAK	IND	strength of schedule (PIT+DEN vs. CIN+KC)
IND-HOU	8-8	CIN loses to BAL ATL beats NO NYJ loses to BUF DEN beats SD MIA beats NE PIT loses to CLE KC beats OAK	HOU	strength of schedule (PIT+DEN vs. CIN+KC)
IND-HOU	8-8	CIN loses to BAL ATL beats NO NYJ loses to BUF DEN beats SD MIA beats NE PIT loses to CLE KC loses to OAK	likely HOU	best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
DEN-KC	11-5		KC	division record

AFC Wild Card and Seeding Tiebreakers after Week 16:

Tied Teams	Record		Winner	Why?
NE-CIN	12-4		NE	common opponents
NE-DEN	12-4		DEN	head-to-head
NYJ-PIT	10-6		PIT	common opponents
NYJ-DEN	11-5		NYJ	conference record
NYJ-KC			KC	conference record
CIN-DEN			DEN	head-to-head
CIN-KC	11-5		CIN	head-to-head
PIT-KC	10-6		KC	head-to-head
NE-CIN-DEN	12-4		DEN	head-to-head
NYJ-PIT-KC	10-6		KC	conference record