Sunday, December 27, 2009

Simple AFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2009

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games.
  2. Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. The AFC #6 seed will have at least an 8-8 record.
  8. Locked berths: IND #1, SD #2.
  9. Other clinched division: NE, CIN.
  10. Alive: NYJ, BAL, PIT, DEN, HOU, JAX, MIA.
  11. Eliminated: CLE, KC, OAK, BUF, TEN.
  12. The AFC wild card tiebreakers are insanely complicated.
  13. At least one wild card contender from each division will have 8 wins. The two-team interdivisional tiebreakers at 8-8 are thus irrelevant.
  14. If all the 8-7 teams win in Week 17, NYJ is the #5 seed and BAL is the #6 seed.
  15. NYJ wins each of its tiebreakers at 9-7.
  16. JAX wins each of its tiebreakers at 8-8.
  17. (removed - somehow I deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU tiebreaker).
  18. TEN loses each of its tiebreakers except for a two-team with HOU and so is eliminated.
  19. Important Week 17 games: NE @ HOU, PIT @ MIA, BAL @ OAK, JAX @ CLE, KC @ DEN, CIN @ NYJ (Sunday night).
  20. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
AFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditionsWinnerWhy?
Divisional:
MIA-NYJ8-8MIAhead-to-head sweep
BAL-PITanyBALdivision record
JAX-TEN8-8JAXdivision record
JAX-HOU8-8JAXhead-to-head sweep
TEN-HOU8-8TENdivision record
JAX-TEN-HOU8-8JAXround robin





Conference:




NE-CINany likely NEstrength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL9-7NYJcommon opponents
NYJ-PIT9-7NYJconference record
NYJ-HOU9-7NYJhead-to-head
NYJ-DEN9-7NYJcommon opponents
BAL-HOU9-7BALconference record
BAL-DEN9-7BALhead-to-head
PIT-HOU9-7HOUcommon opponents
PIT-DEN9-7PIThead-to-head
HOU-DEN9-7DENconference record
MIA-BAL-HOU8-8MIAHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-BAL-JAX8-8JAXconference record
MIA-BAL-DENanyDENstrength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-DEN8-8DENPIT eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-JAX-DENanyJAXconference record
MIA-TEN-DEN8-8DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-HOU-DEN8-8DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL-JAX8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-BAL-TEN8-8NYJTEN eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-HOUanyNYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-DENanyNYJcommon opponents
NYJ-BAL-DEN8-8likely DENBAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-HOU9-7NYJconference record
NYJ-PIT-DEN9-7NYJPIT eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-PIT-DEN8-8likely DENPIT eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-HOU-DEN9-7NYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
BAL-TEN-DEN8-8BALTEN eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head
BAL-HOU-DENanyBALHOU eliminated on conference record;
head-to-head
PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
PIT-TEN-DEN8-8DENconference record
PIT-HOU-DENanyDENconference record
MIA-BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN8-8DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-BAL-HOU-DEN8-8DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
MIA-PIT-TEN-DEN8-8DENPIT & TEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
MIA-PIT-HOU-DEN8-8DENPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-BAL-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENTEN eliminated on conference record;
BAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN9-7NYJHOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-BAL-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENHOU eliminated on conference record;
BAL eliminated on common opponents;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-JAX-DEN8-8JAXconference record
NYJ-PIT-TEN-DEN8-8likely DENPIT & TEN eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory
NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN9-7NYJPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
common opponents
NYJ-PIT-HOU-DEN8-8likely DENPIT & HOU eliminated on conference record;
strength-of-victory


Strength of victory:
Tied TeamsTeam 1Team 2
Team 3
NE-CINNE
CIN
wins over:ATL, BAL, BUF, BUF, CAR, (HOU), JAX, MIA, NYJ, TB, TEN
BAL, BAL, CHI, CLE, CLE, DET, GB, KC, (NYJ), PIT, PIT
current SOV wins:65
61
guaranteed Week 17 wins:ATL or TB
CHI or DET
guaranteed Week 17 losses:none
none
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND (counts 2x)
CAR v. NO
JAX @ CLE
MIA v. PIT
TEN @ SEA
BAL @ OAK
GB @ ARI
CLE v. JAX (counts 2x)
KC @ DEN
PIT @ MIA (counts 2x)




MIA-DEN at 8-8
MIA
DEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TBCIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:56
62
guaranteed Week 17 wins:none
KC
guaranteed Week 17 losses:JAX, PIT
none
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND
CAR v. NO
NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x)
TB v. ATL
CIN @ NYJ
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NYG @ MIN
OAK v. BAL
SD v. WAS




NYJ-DEN at 8-8
NYJ
DEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, HOU, IND, NE, OAK, TB, TEN
CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:59
62
guaranteed Week 17 wins:BUF or IND
HOU or NE
KC
CIN
guaranteed Week 17 losses:none
none
needed Week 17 wins:CAR v. NO
TB v. ATL
TEN @ SEA
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NE @ HOU
NYG @ MIN
SD v. WAS




MIA-BAL-DEN at 8-8
MIA
BALDEN
wins over:BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TBCHI, CLE, CLE, DEN, DET, KC, PIT, SD
CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD
current SOV wins:56
4762
guaranteed Week 17 wins:noneCHI or DET
KC
KC
guaranteed Week 17 losses:JAX
PIT
DEN
PIT
OAK
needed Week 17 wins:BUF v. IND
CAR v. NO
NE @ HOU
NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x)
TB v. ATL
CLE v. JAX (counts 2x)
SD v. WAS
CIN @ NYJ
CLE v. JAX
DAL v. PHI
NE @ HOU
NYG @ MIN
SD v. WAS

Labels: ,

Simple NFC Tiebreaker Chart, 2009

Notes and assumptions:
  1. No possibility of tie games.
  2. Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now. (Example: PHI and DAL can only be tied if DAL beats PHI.)
  3. Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Divisional ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
  7. The NFC #6 seed will have at least a 10-6 record.
  8. Locked berths: NO #1.
  9. Clinched divisions: MIN, ARI.
  10. Clinched berths: PHI, GB, DAL.
  11. Eliminated: TB, STL, DET, WAS, CHI, SEA, CAR, ATL, SF, NYG.
  12. Important Week 17 games: PHI @ DAL, NYG @ MIN, GB @ ARI, NO @ CAR.
  13. The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
NFC Tiebreakers after Week 16:
Tied TeamsRecordExtra conditionWinnerWhy?
Divisional:
PHI-DAL11-5DALhead-to-head sweep
MIN-GB11-5MINhead-to-head sweep





Conference:




PHI-MINanyPHIconference record
PHI-GB11-5GBcommon opponents
DAL-MIN11-5DALconference record
DAL-GB10-6GBhead-to-head
DAL-ARI11-5ARIcommon opponents
MIN-ARI11-5ARIhead-to-head
PHI-MIN-ARI11-5PHIcommon opponents
DAL-MIN-ARI11-5ARIMIN eliminated on conference record;
common opponents

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Defensive Touchdowns by Offensive Players, NFL, 1991-2009

Following up yesterday's post ...

Defensive Touchdowns by Offensive Players, NFL, 1990-2011:

PlayerGameDateDistanceOriginal Turnover2nd Turnover
Jeff Query
GB 14, TB 2610/14/19900Don Majkowski interceptionHarry Hamilton fumble
Mike Sherrard
SF 14, ARI 2411/1/199239Brent Jones fumbleEric Hill fumble
Danan Hughes
KC 10, JAX 2411/9/19977Rich Gannon interceptionChris Hudson fumbleLink
Keenan McCardell
TB 35, IND 3810/6/200357Brad Johnson interceptionMike Doss fumble
Robert Meachem
NO 33, WAS 3012/6/200944Drew Brees interception
Kareem Moore fumble

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Reader Mail!

What is a ruling on the Robert Meachem touchdown against Washington? Should that be credited as a defensive touchdown or as a touchdown for the offensive player?

Technically, it's an opposition fumble recovery and a fumble return touchdown for Meachem and the Saints defense. (Check with your fantasy provider - as I write this, CBS Sportsline has it scored correctly, but Yahoo does not.)

Mike Sherrard of the 49ers had a similar touchdown against the Cardinals in 1992, going 39 yards after ripping the ball from Cardinals LB Eric Hill after Hill had recovered a fumble from 49ers TE Brent Jones.

Sherrard: "I basically was just trying to tackle him. The first thing you know, the ball was in my hands, and I just sort of jerked at it. He didn't see me; I sneaked up on him a little bit."

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Oldest Starting Quarterback Matchups

Assuming Kurt Warner makes the start Sunday, the Favre-Warner matchup would be the 8th oldest (in combined ages) starting quarterback matchup in modern NFL history.

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, NFL, 1950-2009:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
82 years, 44 days
GB 31, CAR 1711/18/2007Brett Favre38-39Vinny Testaverde44-5
80 years, 84 days
CAR 25, ARI 1010/14/2007Vinny Testaverde43-335Kurt Warner36-114
80 years, 67 days
DEN 21, SEA 1610/11/1998John Elway38-105Warren Moon41-327
79 years, 283 days
CAR 31, SF 1412/2/2007Vinny Testaverde44-19Trent Dilfer35-264
79 years, 260 days
NYJ 28, ATL 310/25/1998Vinny Testaverde34-346Steve DeBerg
44-279
78 years, 352 days
NYG 19, MIA 1412/5/1993Phil Simms39-32Steve DeBerg39-320
78 years, 288 days
DAL 13, TB 910/26/2008Brad Johnson40-43Jeff Garcia38-245
78 years, 224 days
ARI 30, MIN 17
12/6/2009Kurt Warner38-167Brett Favre40-57
78 years, 111 days
DEN 30, SEA 2711/2/1997John Elway37-127Warren Moon40-349
77 years, 364 days
DEN 35, SEA 149/7/1997John Elway37-71Warren Moon40-293
77 years, 352 days
CHI 15, MIN 1310/28/1996Dave Krieg38-8Warren Moon39-344
77 years, 104 days
SEA 38, SF 912/21/1997Warren Moon41-33Steve Young
36-71

All 1990s and 2000s games. Looking at prior decades ...

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, NFL, 1980-1989:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
72 years, 188 days
HOU 20, DEN 1611/2/1980Ken Stabler34-312Craig Morton37-241
72 years, 179 days
DEN 17, OAK 010/4/1981Craig Morton38-241Jim Plunkett33-303
72 years, 123 days
DEN 9, OAK 7
9/6/1981Craig Morton38-213Jim Plunkett33-275
72 years, 19 days
TB 20, MIN 1010/18/1987Jim Zorn34-161Tony Adams37-223
71 years, 325 days
STL 14, PHI 119/25/1983Jim Hart39-149Ron Jaworski
32-186

The Zorn-Adams matchup came during the last week of replacement games, and was the last game of both quarterbacks' careers.

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, NFL, 1970-1979:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
76 years, 173 days
SF 20, KC 310/5/1975Norm Snead36-66Len Dawson40-107
75 years, 163 days
MIN 21, DAL 1010/26/1978Fran Tarkenton38-265Roger Staubach36-263
75 years, 147 days
KC 42, DEN 3411/18/1974Len Dawson39-151Charley Johnson35-361
75 years, 139 days
WAS 24, NYG 310/20/1974Sonny Jurgensen40-58Norm Snead35-81
74 years, 143 days
WAS 38, SD 09/16/1973Billy Kilmer34-11Johnny Unitas
40-132

44-year-old George Blanda played the majority of the game, but did not start, against 38-year-old Johnny Unitas and 36-year-old Len Dawson towards the end of the 1971 season.

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, AFL/NFL, 1960-1969:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
74 years, 284 days
NYG 17, PIT 149/24/1961Charlie Conerly40-5Bobby Layne35-279
74 years, 56 days
PIT 44, NYG 1711/22/1964Ed Brown36-27Y.A. Tittle38-29
73 years, 317 days
BOS 42, HOU 1412/18/1965Babe Parilli35-225George Blanda38-92
73 years, 285 days
PIT 27, NYG 249/20/1964Ed Brown35-319Y.A. Tittle37-331
73 years, 281 days
HOU 31, OAK 09/10/1966George Blanda36-362Cotton Davidson
34-284

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, NFL, 1950-1959:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
71 years, 246 days
NYG 24, PHI 710/18/1959Charlie Conerly38-29Norm Van Brocklin33-217
71 years, 218 days
PHI 49, NYG 2110/4/1959Norm Van Brocklin33-203Charlie Conerly38-15
71 years, 25 days
PHI 33, WAS 011/12/1950Tommy Thompson34-150Sammy Baugh36-240
70 years, 346 days
NYG 21, PIT 1610/25/1959Charlie Conerly38-36Bobby Layne32-310
69 years, 362 days
PHI 27, NYG 2410/5/1958Norm Van Brocklin34-346Charlie Conerly
37-16

Oldest starting quarterback matchups, NFL Playoffs, 1950-2009:

Combined AgeGameDateWinning QBAgeLosing QBAge
75 years, 301 days
DEN 38, MIA 31/9/1999John Elway38-185Dan Marino37-116
74 years, 264 days
KC 28, HOU 201/16/1994Joe Montana37-219Warren Moon37-59
74 years, 83 days
OAK 38, NYJ 241/12/2002Rich Gannon36-23Vinny Testaverde38-60
74 years, 58 days
MIN 35, WAS 2012/18/1976Fran Tarkenton36-319Billy Kilmer37-104
73 years, 248 days
DEN 23, NYJ 101/17/1999John Elway38-183Vinny Testaverde
35-65

Potential Favre-Warner, Favre-McNabb, and Favre-Peyton Manning matchups would make this list.