- No possibility of tie games.
- Tiebreakers are as they would be at the end of the season, NOT as of right now.
- Tiebreakers that don't affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
- Divisional ties are broken first. To break a tie between NYJ, MIA, and BAL, first break the tie between NYJ and MIA.
- If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
- Strength-of-victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.
- The AFC #6 seed will have at least an 8-8 record.
- Locked berths: IND #1, SD #2.
- Other clinched division: NE, CIN.
- Alive: NYJ, BAL, PIT, DEN, HOU, JAX, MIA.
- Eliminated: CLE, KC, OAK, BUF, TEN.
- The AFC wild card tiebreakers are insanely complicated.
- At least one wild card contender from each division will have 8 wins. The two-team interdivisional tiebreakers at 8-8 are thus irrelevant.
- If all the 8-7 teams win in Week 17, NYJ is the #5 seed and BAL is the #6 seed.
- NYJ wins each of its tiebreakers at 9-7.
- JAX wins each of its tiebreakers at 8-8.
- (removed - somehow I deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU tiebreaker).
- TEN loses each of its tiebreakers except for a two-team with HOU and so is eliminated.
- Important Week 17 games: NE @ HOU, PIT @ MIA, BAL @ OAK, JAX @ CLE, KC @ DEN, CIN @ NYJ (Sunday night).
- The complete tiebreaker rules are here.
| Winner | ||||
| Conference: | ||||
strength-of-victory | ||||
| DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
strength-of-victory | ||||
strength-of-victory | ||||
common opponents | ||||
common opponents | ||||
| likely DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
common opponents | ||||
| likely DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
| likely DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
common opponents | ||||
strength-of-victory | ||||
head-to-head | ||||
head-to-head | ||||
| DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
strength-of-victory | ||||
| DEN | strength-of-victory | |||
common opponents | ||||
| likely DEN | BAL eliminated on common opponents; strength-of-victory | |||
common opponents | ||||
BAL eliminated on common opponents; strength-of-victory | ||||
strength-of-victory | ||||
common opponents | ||||
strength-of-victory |
Strength of victory:
| Team 2 | Team 3 | ||
| NE | CIN | ||
| ATL, BAL, BUF, BUF, CAR, (HOU), JAX, MIA, NYJ, TB, TEN | BAL, BAL, CHI, CLE, CLE, DET, GB, KC, (NYJ), PIT, PIT | ||
| 65 | 61 | ||
| ATL or TB | CHI or DET | ||
| none | none | ||
| BUF v. IND (counts 2x) CAR v. NO JAX @ CLE MIA v. PIT TEN @ SEA | BAL @ OAK GB @ ARI CLE v. JAX (counts 2x) KC @ DEN PIT @ MIA (counts 2x) | ||
| MIA | DEN | ||
| BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TB | CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD | ||
| 56 | 62 | ||
| none | KC | ||
| JAX, PIT | none | ||
| BUF v. IND CAR v. NO NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x) TB v. ATL | CIN @ NYJ CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NYG @ MIN OAK v. BAL SD v. WAS | ||
| NYJ | DEN | ||
| BUF, CAR, HOU, IND, NE, OAK, TB, TEN | CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD | ||
| 59 | 62 | ||
| BUF or IND HOU or NE | KC CIN | ||
| none | none | ||
| CAR v. NO TB v. ATL TEN @ SEA | CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NE @ HOU NYG @ MIN SD v. WAS | ||
| MIA | BAL | DEN | |
| BUF, CAR, JAX, NE, NYJ, NYJ, PIT, TB | CHI, CLE, CLE, DEN, DET, KC, PIT, SD | CIN, CLE, DAL, KC, NE, NYG, OAK, SD | |
| 56 | 47 | 62 | |
| none | CHI or DET KC | KC | |
| JAX PIT | DEN PIT | OAK | |
| BUF v. IND CAR v. NO NE @ HOU NYJ v. CIN (counts 2x) TB v. ATL | CLE v. JAX (counts 2x) SD v. WAS | CIN @ NYJ CLE v. JAX DAL v. PHI NE @ HOU NYG @ MIN SD v. WAS |
You don't have a scenario for Miami, NY, Balt, Pitt, Tenn, Houston and Denver all finishing 8-8. I think Miami can get in that way.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing that out. I must have accidentally deleted the MIA-BAL-HOU scenario when I was revising the chart.
ReplyDeleteThe chart and notes have been corrected.